When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, war is the most likely result. That is the grim statistical reality at the heart of Graham Allison's influential study.

Allison examines 16 cases from the past 500 years where a rising power challenged an established one. Twelve ended in war. It is a sobering ledger. However, looking at this through the lens of Las Ladrones, one element is missing from his calculus: the role of the "hinge states."

In the Peloponnesian War, small city-states like Corcyra dragged Athens and Sparta into conflict. In the Pacific today, it is not just Washington and Beijing making the decisions. It is Taipei, Manila, Tokyo, and yes, Sayang. The "Trap" is often sprung not by the giants, but by the small players they think they can control.

Allison's book is essential for its diagnostic clarity. But its predictive power may depend less on the dispositions of emperors and presidents, and more on the decisions of a coast guard captain in the Luzon Strait or a mining protest in our own highlands.